Effectiveness of IMF Programs to Countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the First Phase of the Global Financial Crisis 2008-2011

Project description:

IMF Independent Evaluation Office commissioned two in-depth countries studies related to IMF stand-by arrangements granted in Central and East Europe (Hungary and Belarus).

General objective

Alexander Chubrik and Peter Mihalyi are responsible for preparing two papers assessing the effectiveness of IMF programs to countries in Central and Eastern Europe impacted by the recent global financial crisis (2008-2011). In particular, the papers will assess the effectiveness of IMF programs in Hungary and Belarus. The treatment of each country case will be comprehensive, covering all aspects of the program - fiscal, monetary, and structural - and correspondingly all aspects of the economy. The treatment should assess the extent to which IMF program conditionality and parallel advice in the form of Article IV reports was responsive to global or regional risk factors in the aftermath of the crisis.

Project structure and involvement of CASE:

The work on country case studies involves analysis of the official documents related to IMF program, IMF country reports under the Article IV consultation process, analysis of country macroeconomic and financial data. Interviewing IMF people and government officials in charge of this program is also one of the methods of preparing country studies.
In Mid-march, Marek Dabrowski will undertake a trip to Washington in order to conduct interviews with IMF staff involved in the Stand-by programs to Belarus and Hungary.
By April, a final report should be submitted to the IMF IEO.