01 Aug 2014 - 01 Dec 2014

growth & trade, innovation, energy & climate

energy, energy policy, energy security, Europe, Infrastructure, energy and climate change, Macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy, Research

Analysis of the influence of the shale gas fracking on Polish economy until 2030

Project objectives:

The main objective of the project it to asses an impact of shale gas fracking on Polish economy. The methodology of the research includes careful costs and benefits analysis of shale gas fracking with special emphasis on: possible scenarios, capital requirements and demand estimates for energy carriers. The integral part of those economic analysis and predictions will be assessment of costs and benefits of gas fracking on economy in context of investments, employment and tax revenues. The main aim of the analysis is to prepare various scenarios, considering variety of assumptions, related to opportunities of gas drilling from shale and present their impact on economy.

The role of CASE:

There are various scenarios for shale gas fracking and its usage possible by 2030.

2.1 Assumptions regarding various scenarios
Assumptions will relate to: development of the national economy, energy demand and perspectives of increase in energy supply from various sources. While estimating certain assumptions, some elements need to be considered such as: expected legal changes, positive or negative factors affecting investors, necessary investments to increase energy production, national and European energy policy (including construction of gas and power transmitters), possible import of shale gas from the USA, probability of contraction of nuclear power station in Poland and others (to be determined).

2.2 Four possible scenarios for shale fracking in Poland. Depending on set assumptions, the following scenarios will be formed:

base (moderately positive),
conservative ( some difficulties expected, but realistic),
optimistic ( development with substantial contributions of foreign investors and international financial institutions),
pessimistic (stagnate).

Specific scenarios will be considered after consultations with a client and clarification of assumptions.

Expected outcomes from the project:

Analysis of possible scenarios ( pessimistic, moderate, optimistic- in relation to basic scenario) by using adequate methods with justification of selection of those in time frame until 2030.
Describe results of the research with conclusions in form of report and multimedia presentation.

The main outcome of our work will be the report ‘Analysis of impact of shale gas fracking on Polish economy in the time prospect 2014-2030’.