A Strategy for EMU Enlargement

Abstract

Both the economic and the political economy arguments point to fast EMU accession of NMS. Looking at the 'classical' optimum currency area criteria, i.e. trade integration, co-movement of business cycles and actual factor mobility, NMS' record is not worse, on average, than that of the current Eurozone members, and should further improve before Eurozone entry, decreasing risk of their exposure to idiosyncratic shocks. After joining the EMU, the common currency should help NMS to develop additional intra- EMU trade links, further synchronize business cycle and increase factor mobility. Both theoretical arguments and empirical experience demonstrates that so-called real convergence accompanies nominal convergence, and that there is synergy rather than a trade-off between the two.