Ukraine's Foreign Trade Developments and Forecasts

Abstract

This paper discloses major developments of Ukrainian foreign trade for the recent years, shows the behavior of main factors which influenced foreign trade, presents results of modeling as well as short-term forecasts.

In this paper we describe the structure of Ukrainian merchandise trade, exchange rate movements and their impact on the merchandise trade balance. Then we discuss developments of the world economy and forecasts for international trade. Finally, we present the model of Ukrainian merchandise foreign trade followed by the forecasts produced by the model.

From the practical point of view, our work was aimed at building a model that would help to predict the influence of the price (real exchange rate) and income (GDP) changes both domestically and abroad on the Ukrainian Merchandise Trade. The results were planned to use in the monthly and quarterly models of Ukrainian economy developed and operated by CASE and Ukrainian government.