Socio-Demographic Forecast of Poland, 1997 - 2050, for Modelling Incomes and Social Security Retirement Pensions

Abstract

The primary purpose of this paper is to report estimates of the size and the social and demographic composition of the population of Poland, in the years 1997-2050, which takes into account the variables needed for modelling the effects of the 1999 pension reform. The total population is forecast to increase from 38.5 mln to 40 mln, and then fall to around 37 mln in the year 2050.

The paper proposes specific assumptions concerning the rate and form of migration from the agricultural to the non-agricultural category, the rate of extension of postelementary education, and the rate of increase in the number of self-employed and freelance workers. The agricultural community is forecast to decline from 23.8% in the year 2000 to about 20.4% in 2025 and 16.3% in 2050.

The education gap between Poland and the European Community, large in 1997, is forecast to decline gradually, but will almost disappear only towards the end of the 2000-2050 period. The paper traces the implications of these changes for the number and composition of the population of those who will receive benefits and those who will pay social security contributions.