Polish Launch of the 2014 IMF “Spillover Report”

CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research

and

International Monetary Fund

cordially invite to


Polish Launch of the 2014 IMF “Spillover Report”

Time: 15:00, Monday, 29 September 2014
Venue: Centrum Zielna, Zielna 37, Warsaw


Emil Stavrev, PhD
Deputy Division Chief at the Multilateral Surveillance Division of the IMF Research Department, which led the work on the 2014 Spillover Report

Christopher A. Hartwell, PhD
President of CASE Management Board


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Global spillovers have entered a new phase. With crisis-related spillovers and risks fading, changing growth patterns are the main source of spillovers in the global economy currently. Two key trends are highly relevant: (i) the unwinding of exceptional monetary accommodation will proceed and global financial conditions will tighten in the coming years, as recovery in advanced economies gains strength; and (ii) growth in emerging markets is slowing on a broad basis since its pre-crisis peak and can carry noticeable spillover effects. So should we worry if and when global financial conditions tighten? What to watch out for and who to watch out for as interest rates begin to normalize? The answer depends on: (i) what is going on in the originating source countries in terms of the underlying drivers behind higher yields, e.g., whether or not stronger growth is behind higher rates, and (ii) what is going on in the receiving countries—that is, how vulnerable they might. What are the spillover implications of slower growth in emerging market economies? Slower growth in emerging markets can have sizable spillovers on the rest of the world through diverse channels. A gradual, synchronized, and protracted slowdown will likely weigh on global growth through trade, finance as well as commodity markets. The 2014 IMF Spillover Report prepared by IMF staff looks into these important issues.
 

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The lecture will take place in English.

There is no attendance fee.