Measuring consumer inflation in real time

In the framework of the project 'Measuring consumer inflation in real time', CASE develops an innovative method for measuring inflation in Poland. The aim of the project is a monthly update of consumer inflation divided between main product categories and pursued on an aggregated level. The index could be comparable to the HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) published by theCentral Statistical Office of Poland. The innovative nature of the project is due to a significant reduction of access to data, through the use of large data sets concerning prices taken from the Internet, which will be automatically collected in real time.

Accurate and timely information regarding the changes in prices of consumer goods are critical for many business entities. The level of consumer inflation indicates prosperity in the economy, affecting, among other things, the prices and wages set by the company (such as second-round effects) and above all, affecting monetary policy, as determined by the central banks. Knowledge of the real and current trends as well as price volatility implies that these entities respond quickly and accurately to changing economic conditions.

Currently, consumer inflation is presented by the Central Statistical Office of Poland. The results are published even six weeks after the end of the month in which inflation has been measured. The delay results from the dispersion of data sources and the time required to perform surveys. In the framework of CASE's project, data are collected and published within few hours.

Sponsor: Bank Pekao S.A.