Macroeconomical-level Effects of Shale Gas Exploration

„Macroeconomic effects associated with shale gas are evaluated in purely optimistic terms today. In fact, in recent years a number of institutes have revised down their forecast in this area” – argued dr. Maciej Sobolewski, CASE expert, during the panel discussion: "Macroeconomical-level Effects of Shale Gas Exploration",  held during the Polish Natural Gas 2020 conference. „Currently, CASE is also considering some more conservative scenarios for the development of the shale sector; in the most optimistic one the extraction will not exceed 5 billion m3 per annum in the second half of the next decade”.

According to dr. Sobolewski, although today there is no doubt that Poland does possess shale gas reserves, we are also positive that the geological and surface conditions are less favorable than it was initially assumed, which significantly increases the cost of exploitation of wellbores and reduces their expected productivity. As a result, even though the shale gas project can still be profitable, a substantial reduction in the gas prices should not be expected, as the domestically extracted natural gas will not be much cheaper than the imported one. Consequently, the macroeconomic effects – though no doubt positive in terms of increased investment and job creation – will influence the economy in a less dramatic way than it was originally assumed based on the effects of shale gas revolution in the US.

The discussion was moderated by Andrzej Sikora from the Energy Studies Institute. Apart from Maciej Sobolewski, the keynote speakers included Jakub Jaworowski, Undersecretary of State at the Chancellery of the Prime Minister, Małgorzata Szymańska from Department of oil and gas, Ministry of Economy, Wiesław Prugar, President of ORLEN Upstream (OPPPW), Marek Firlej from the Tax Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance, and Robert Gwiazdowski form the Adam Smith Centre.
 

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