Ex-post Evaluation of Macro Financial Assistance Operations to Lebanon

Description:

The main objective of this ex-post evaluation is to evaluate the EC's macro-financial assistance (MFA) operations in Lebanon in order to learn key lessons that can be applied to future interventions and/or to determine whether a reorientation of the present approach is needed.

The evaluation questions broadly focus on three core areas of economic effects:

•     Macroeconomic effects;
•     Structural effects;
•     Effects on the sustainability of the external financial situation.

The evaluation consists of 3 steps

1. The first step is to identify the types of short-term macro economic effects, short and medium structural effects on the economy and on institutions and identify plausible cause and effect relations between assistance and subsequent developments.
2. The second step is to establish a counterfactual situation.
3. The third step involves determination of effects of the operation, which, for both macroeconomic issues and structural issues amounts to the difference between observed developments and the counterfactual situation. Unexpected and indirect effects, as well as consequences of programme design are also analysed. In addition, the team develops two case studies for structural reform. These case studies analyse in-depth specific structural conditions linked to the MFA, and may include a case study on the power sector specifically.

CASE provides the modelling input, local expertise and quality control.

For the final report "Ex-post evaluation of Macro Financial Assistance operations to Lebanon" please click here.

Sponsor:

FWC EC DG ECFIN

Partner:

ECORYS