Ex-post Evaluation of Balance of Payments Support Operations to Hungary

The evaluation will focus on three core areas of economic effects:

•     Macroeconomic effects;
•     Structural effects;
•     Effects on the sustainability of the external financial situation.

Each area focuses on the effects over specific time horizons: macroeconomic developments are assessed on short-term effects up to 2 years after the initial disbursement), the structural effects on the economy and institutions on short and medium term effects (up to 4 years after the initial disbursement) and the external financial situation on medium to long term effects (3 years or more after the initial disbursement).
For the attribution of effects to the BoP assistance operation, we will follow a three-step approach in accordance with the Guidelines for ex post evaluation of MFA/BoP assistance.

1.     The first step is to identify the types of short-term macroeconomic effects, short and medium structural effects on the economy and on institutions and identify plausible    cause and effect relations between assistance and subsequent developments.
2.     The second step is to establish a counterfactual situation.
3.     The third step involves determination of effects of the operation, which, for both macroeconomic issues and structural issues amounts to the difference between observed developments and the counterfactual situation. Unexpected and indirect effects, as well as consequences of programme design will also be analysed.

In addition, the study will develop two case studies for structural reform. These case studies will analyse in-depth specific conditions linked to the MFA, and may include case studies on the progress made to increase the sustainability of the pension system, and on the progress made in financial sector regulation and supervision.

CASE provides input to the modelling, local expertise and quality control.

Sponsor: FWC EC DG ECFIN

Partners: ECORYS and WIIW