EUROFRAME releases economic forecast for 2012

The more pessimistic or downside scenario attempts to model the effects of a further deepening of the crisis as uncertainty continues unabated until the end of 2012. The upside scenario, aims to capture the effects of some possible ‘decisive action’ that might be taken by European policy makers, which would shock the markets out of the current mood of pessimism and uncertainty and see a return of confidence in the ability of the euro area governments to meet forthcoming debt obligations without difficulty.

This report is rather different from previous EUROFRAME forecasts produced over the last decade. On this occasion the major uncertainty in the forecast arises from the stance of domestic policy within the euro area, not from external factors. Because of this uncertainty the report focuses on three different scenarios for 2012 and 2013 rather than concentrating on a single “likely” forecast, as was usual in the past.

EUROFRAME-EFN: European Forcasting Network (EFN) brings together ten of the most respected economic forecasting and research institutes in Europe to produce a short term outlook once a year. The reports include economic forecasts, policy monitoring and coverage of special policy topics. CASE joined EUROFRAME-EFN in late 2007 after contributing to specific EUROFRAME-EFN projects from 2005 onward.

Joint publications of the EUROFRAME group can be found here.