Development of the Leading Indicators for Economic Growth Cycles in Ukraine

Seminar supporting the Project «Development of the Early Warning System of Macroeconomic Crises for Ukraine»

CASE and CASE Ukraine invite experts and journalists to participate in the event.  Additional information about the project and the seminar can be obtained by phone or email.

Date: 8 December 2008
Time: 14:00 - 18:00
Venue: President Hotel, Conference Centre, Section B
              Hospitalna St. 12, Kyiv, Ukraine
Contact Person: Viachaslau Herasimovich
                               v.herasimovich@case-ukraine.kiev.ua or +380 44 227-53-17
Working Language: Russian
Agenda: Download

CASE and CASE Ukraine are co-organizing a seminar "Development of the Leading Indicators for Economic Growth Cycles in Ukraine" to present the results of the research conducted as part of the Development of the Early Warning System of Macroeconomic Crises in Ukraine Project.

The project aims at developing an early warning system for the Ukrainian economy, as well as at enhancing the Government's capacity to monitor and analyze current economic trends and structural changes in the economy, in addition to better assessing macroeconomic risks in order to prevent and/or alleviate macroeconomic distortions and crises that lead to recessions and potentially serious political and social instability.

In this research special attention is paid to the development of leading indicators for economic growth. During the seminar, the Composite Leading Index will be introduced. The Index proved itself fairly good in predicting the turning points in deviations from growth trend in industrial production starting from 2000. Further work should still be done in developing a system of indicators that would characterize structural changes in the economy and macroeconomic distortions. Approaches towards the development of these indicators will also be the subject of this seminar, along with a discussion on some potential candidate indicators.

The Project is co-financed by the 2008 Polish aid programme of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland. The materials express exclusively the views of the authors and cannot be identified with the official position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland.