Determinates of Savings and Economic Growth in Poland in Comparison to the OECD Countries

Abstract

Authors investigate interactions between the rate of economic growth and the saving rate in Poland in the 1990s. Tendencies observed in the Polish economy are related to the long term trends of growth and saving in a number of OECD countries. A simulation of possible development paths of the Polish economy is conducted using results of the estimation of the saving function for the OECD countries in the period 1971-1994. The model implies that, if the factors determining the rate of saving and the rate of growth were the same as those in the OECD countries during the last 25 years, the rate of saving in Poland would be higher by 5 percentage points and would equal 22 percent. Moreover, assuming the medium term rate of growth of 5-7 percent, a reduction of the budget deficit and the current account deficit, would result in a rise in the saving rate up to the level of 25-27 percent of GDP. Savings of households would rise by 2-3 percentage points to the level of 12 percent of GDP. The long term rate of growth would either be lowered down to 4 percent or raised up to 8 percent  depending on the extent of utilisation of externalities and increasing returns from the employment of the human capital and technological change.