CASE launches a project "Measuring consumer inflation in real time"

Center for Social and Economic research launched a project 'Measuring consumer inflation in real time'. Within the framework of the project CASE develops an innovative method for measuring inflation in Poland. The aim of the project is a monthly update of consumer inflation divided between main product categories and pursued on an aggregated level. The index could be comparable to the HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) published by the Central Statistical Office of Poland. The innovative nature of the project is due to a significant reduction of access to data, through the use of large data sets concerning prices taken from the Internet, which will be automatically collected in real time.

Currently, consumer inflation, disaggregated according to product categories, is monthly presented by the  Central Statistical Office of Poland. Its results are published about 2 weeks after the end of the month in which inflation has been measured. The delay results from the dispersion of data sources and the time required to perform surveys. In the framework of CASE's project, data will be collected and published within 2-3 days.

Accurate and timely information regarding the changes in prices of consumer goods are critical for many business entities. The level of consumer inflation indicates prosperity in the economy, affecting, among other things, the prices and wages set by the company (such as second-round effects) and above all, affecting monetary policy, as determined by the central banks. Knowledge of the real and current trends as well as price volatility implies that these entities respond quickly and accurately to changing economic conditions.

“We will present the results of the project in autumn” – says CASE’s economist, Bartosz Radzikowski. “We plan to make our index available for financial portals, so that the experts can use it on a daily basis and compare it to the one released by Central Statistical Office”.