07 Feb 2012
118th BRE-CASE Seminar: Fiscal challenges in an era of declining demand and sustainability concerns
BRE Bank and CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research
cordially invite you to:
118th BRE-CASE Seminar: Fiscal challenges in an era of declining demand and sustainability concerns
The lecture will be delivered by:
Carlo Cottarelli, Director of the Fiscal Department, IMF
According to Carlo Cottarelli, director of the Fiscal Affairs Department in the IMF, in order to reach the level from before the crisis, the primary ratio would have to change from -4% of the GDP to + 4% of GDP in the coming 10 years. Hence, the GDP growth of 1 percent within 20 years will lower the deficit proportion by 60%, even if some part of the additional income resulting from the economic growth will be spent on other things. It means that lowering the deficit gradually brings more effects than reducing it drastically.
The IMF analysis for 2011 shows that both US and Japan have huge deficit and public debt, yet due to favorable financial structure the interest rates are low. This situation will continue as long as international banks will take US dollar as stable currency. In Europe however, some of the countries will have to do a drastic fiscal adjustment. Focusing only on fiscal adjustment, however, will not enhance the economic growth.
Fiscal problems and fiscal balance were the topic of discussion at the 118th BRE-CASE seminar. The text of the lecture and main points discussed will be presented in BRE Bank-CASE publication no. 118.
Seminar will be held on 26th of January 2012 at 15.00 in BRE Bank's headquarters, room 5.3, 5th floor Senatorska Street 18, Warsaw
The seminar will be held in English and Polish.
(Simultaneous interpreting will be provided)
The seminar will be streamed online on bankier.TV
http://bankier.tv/problemy-fiskalne-w-czasach-malejacego-popytu-i-obaw-o-wysokosc-dlugu-publicznego-10428.html
IMF Fiscal Monitor:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2012/update/01/fmindex.ht
IMF on Fiscal Challenges (IMF channel):
http://www.youtube.com/user/imf#p/u/1/M6HX8A5bfbY
